Tori Sheffer

Odd Man in the Outfield

It comes as no surprise to anyone in Red Sox Nation that The Big Three (Now recently renamed The Big Four) is rapidly approaching the Major League Org. With all the minor league talent on its way up within the next year or so, it’s time to start asking the same question a lot of fans started to ask last year when Verdugo, Duvall, and Duran lined the outfield: Who is the odd man out?

As the Sox’s number two prospect is banging on the door to be let onto the 40-man roster, the outfielders whom the Sox are playing every day right now are probably starting to wonder what the picture will start to look like for next year, and rightfully so. With Ceddanne Rafaela’s versatility in both the outfield and middle infield, there is some leeway with what could happen. Anthony, the number fourteen prospect in all of baseball, was just called up to the AAA club, and while the possibility of him being called up to start on the big league roster next year is likely (depending on how Spring Training pans out), this could also leave the front office with some extra time to see how everything shakes out.

As it stands right now, the outfield is already a little crowded with 2024 All-Star Game MVP, Jarren Duran, AL Rookie of the Year candidate(s) Wilyer Abreu and Rafaela (if he is placed in centerfield), and veteran lefty killers, Tyler O’Neill and Rob Refsnyder. Rumors have been swirling around right now that this might be Refsnyder’s last MLB season, but if he wants to reach ten years of service time, he’ll most likely want to play one last year before hanging up his cleats, and with Tyler O’Neill having a fantastic bounce-back season in a Boston uniform, he might very well end up as this year’s Justin Turner, only being here for one year to help give the team what it needs, then disappears into the mist of free agency.

Under the assumption that Roman Anthony starts the 2025 season in AAA for a few months, we have Abreu, Duran, O’Neill, Rafaela, and Refsnyder all at our disposal to create the best outfield possible, and we can also see who might be on the offseason chopping block to bolster our big league roster even more. Just based on the numbers, including Anthony’s, you can clearly see that he is almost big-league ready, and deciding who to line the outfield with will be a little more difficult than one thinks.

You have Duran who has been posting similar, if not better, numbers to what he was slashing this time last year before his season-ending injury in New York, but has been doing it with even more flair, it’s easy to see why the Sox would be hesitant to get rid of him, just like they were this past offseason when rumors were flying around that he could be heading out to San Diego. Batting-wise, he has a .290 average out of 561 plate attempts, not to mention the 30 stolen bases he’s collected throughout the season. He’s excelled defensively in both left and centerfield, has saved eight runs (more than Rafaela and Abreu combined), and has blossomed from a meek rookie unsure of what he’s doing on the diamond to a confident experienced clubhouse presence that has, at times, carried this team on its back.

Next, you have Abreu. Now, by no means does he have Rafaela or Duran speed, but he has been known to steal a bag or two, plus he has a pop in his bat that leaves fans’ jaws on the floor from time to time, which is why it comes as a shock to no one that he is high up in the Rookie of the Year talks for the American League. He and Rafaela were both called up to play the Astros series in 2023, and both only played 28 games, yet Abreu somehow still managed to earn a .269 batting average, a .844 OPS, and rack up 24 hits in his eighty-five plate attempts. Watching him grow since the 2022 Astros trade when we received him and Valdez in exchange for Christian Vázquez has been nothing short of incredible.

Following right in line with incredible rookie runs, you also have Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela has been locked down with an eight-year extension, but just putting his accolades into existence can make just about any fan understand why the front office was ready to keep Rafaela in a Boston uniform. Ceddanne adds another component to this puzzle as he could seamlessly fit into the middle infield with Trevor Story or Marcelo Mayer. After Story’s injury in Anaheim at the beginning of this season and Mayer still being in AA, Rafaela quite literally said, “Put me in coach,” and after being met with some reluctance from Alex Cora at first, it was very clear that Rafaela in the middle infield was part of our defensive lineup. Now, with Story and Mayer both riddled with injuries in a Red Sox uniform, Rafaela could very well be our starting shortstop next season if Trevor Story is getting ready to shift into a semi-shortstop, semi-DH position (splitting with Yoshida to be the DH when there’s a lefty pitcher on the mound), and when Story’s in the field, Rafaela can assume his regular position of centerfield or he could assume 2B with Story back full time in the shortstop position, and the current second baseman, also a rookie, David Hamilton, could very easily become a reliable bench bat. Regardless, if there’s one piece of this mystery whose job is safe, it’s going to be Ceddanne Rafaela.

Next up, there’s Tyler O’Neill. Several people assumed that TO was just going to be a rental player, here for the 2024 season, and will probably be gone by the next. His season in Boston has been the definition of a “bounce-back” season. He was one of the “it” players in 2021, then injury after injury, his 2022 and 2023 seasons were not as great as he or the Cardinals would’ve wanted, but that was all a long-distant memory once he put on a Red Sox uniform. His power (and speed despite being one year away from his age thirty season) have been a Sox saving grace this season. While he’s a very streaky player, Red Sox Nation has really seen him “on” so to speak as he has a .272 batting average, a .901 OPS, 22 home runs, and 46 RBIs, which is better than his last two seasons combined. He’s gotten comfortable here in Boston, and in his 81 games, he’s really started to make this city his new home. As Triston Casas mentioned a few days ago, “TO gives everyone else confidence.” He’s been a reassuring veteran presence who has not only found his footing again but has given all the younger guys a more comfortable presence at the plate as well. Much like Justin Turner, TO has put himself in the position to be one of those players who, if given the opportunity to stay, would be a staple here in Boston until the end of his career, especially if his presence this postseason is as strong as it has been this regular season. Very easily could he too become a platoon in the outfield when Anthony arrives (Roman in left, Ceddanne in center, and Jarren/Wilyer and Tyler O’Neill platoon in right.

Lastly, there’s Rob Refsnyder who, after spending time with five teams before finding his home with the Sox, has emerged as another veteran presence the club desperately needed. By no means has he been your typical “everyday” player, but when he does play he makes himself known on the field (and off, in the clubhouse, even if he’s not playing). Just recently he’s announced the idea of retiring after the 2024 season, which, to this conundrum, would be very beneficial; however, he’s only one year away from ten years of major league service, which is an accolade any MLB player would want to receive, so why wouldn’t he want to stay in Boston one more season to remain our “Lefty Killer” and start against left-handed pitching and/or platoon a corner outfield spot in late innings if a lefty reliever comes on.

With all this being said, now the question is going to be okay, so who is left on the outs here? Well, as mentioned before Ceddanne is already locked in for a major extension, Roman is definitely coming up in the coming months (depending on when he makes the 40-man), Jarren is under team control until 2031, and Ref and TO are variables as there’s a possibility of retirement or being lost to free agency, respectively. Unless there is some insane offseason trade (hopefully for some pitching help) that fans and Anthony alike don’t know about, he will absolutely be here this upcoming spring, leaving two moveable options for when that fateful MLB debut arises: Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. Wilyer has had an incredible first season fully in the bigs as a majority of us have seen, and Jarren has officially solidified himself as one of the most well-known Red Sox outfielders in franchise history, so it’s a tough choice to see who could make the move. While it would be a blow to see either of these young men go, either of them could be on the chopping block depending on the offer they get for them.

As mentioned, the Sox need pitching help. With Giolito coming back, Tanner Houck’s emergence, and Bello also being signed to a major extension, there’s truly a need for only one starter, and the bullpen is begging for help after the performances we’ve seen the past two series. Wilyer is an attractive trade candidate as he’s young and still very malleable in whatever outfield he could be placed in. While Duran is a little more set in his ways, he would be valuable for his sheer talent (somewhat like the Lane Thomas deal that occurred at the deadline between the Nats and Guardians at the trade deadline). Depending on what Duran could get from another team, especially with the big three close to the majors, we need to start restocking our farm system, and a big trade of either Abreu or Duran could do just the trick to get us either some fantastic prospects for the farm or a few major league-ready arms.